Time to look at the pointspread numbers in Round 1 of the Playoffs, as the Wild card games held true to form for the most part, with the big surprise in my mind, the Redskins winning at Tampa Bay, proving their worth against a team I thought was better. It brings into play the BIGGEST item on anyone's agenda in the Playoffs and handicapping them, turnovers. You simply, at this level, cannot make mistakes with special teams, and turnovers. One must also account now for defense and red zone offense efficiency. The round 1 ATS numbers are interesting, as I once again look to a respected publication to quote you some interesting facts and figures about this opening round on Saturday and Sunday. Home favorites versus the spread since 1976 are a solid 60-48-3 ATS and home teams versus the spread are 64-49-3 overall. Home teams do have an advantage this time of year, but favorites since 1976 are also 84-31 straight up at home or on road, so it proves the better teams are winning. When teams are favored by 3 points or less in this scenario since 1976, they are only 6-11-1 ATS. Many times in these type of low spread games the teams are evenly matched and just a few big plays will determine the outcome of the entire game, versus the spread and straight up. Remember when you look at these numbers dating back to 1976, that was also before the age of free agency, and there is more parity in the NFL in these times. If you look at home teams since 1998, they are still a solid value in most cases, at 16-7-1 ATS. Round 1 home teams are Chicago, Seattle, Indy and Denver. I would make a guess that 2 to 3 will win straight up, and 2 or more will cover, however I will make you invest some money to get my plays to find out who! I can tell you it is again, a tale of two tales this Saturday and Sunday. The teams who play the best defense, run the ball the best and turn it over the least amount of times will win their games, bottom line. I also look to the kicking game as a barometer to see, in a tight game who I might place some emphasis one as well. Coaching goes somewhat overlooked, but having a solid coach, with some post season experience also is a big plus, but remember as I eluded to last week, ANYONE playing this weekend is a top shelf team with playmakers everywhere on both sides of the ball and any underdog can win it if given the ball enough times with special teams blunders and turnovers, because no one is here by accident. We also saw last week that inexperience played a part especially in the Giants and the Bucs games. Chris Simms for the Bucs simply gave it away in the first half, as well as rookie RB Williams who fumbled and it was returned for a TD. In the Giants case, Eli Manning followed in big brothers footsteps in the playoffs, tossing it up for grabs against a good secondary, which resulted in numerous Carolina points. All in all some very good games with a few keys in each match-up, that at least on paper provide opportunities against the line. Keep in mind it boils down to a finite number of items, and hopefully you found some of them here to key in on. |
